2025-09-29 00:00:00 Ketika Perdana Menteri Israel Benjamin Netanyahu bertemu dengan Presiden Donald Trump di Gedung Putih pada hari Senin, mereka akan membahas Timur Tengah yang telah mengalami perubahan radikal.
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Follow Jerusalem — When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday, they will discuss a Middle East that has undergone radical change.
The US president says a deal to end the war in Gaza is likely.
But whatâs on offer is politically problematic for Netanyahu â and much as the region has transformed, so has Netanyahu.
His drastic change in approach makes it all the more difficult to predict what comes next.
For two years, Israeli jets and special forces have undertaken daring missions, striking targets once thought untouchable, with regional capitals from Doha to Tehran and Damascus bearing the scars of Netanyahuâs pledge to reshape the Middle East after the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.
At the United Nations General Assembly last week, Netanyahu proudly touted Israelâs military operations.
âWeâve hammered the Houthis.
We crushed the bulk of Hamasâs terror machine, we crippled Hezbollah, taking out most of its leaders and much of its weapons arsenal, we destroyed Assadâs armamentsâ in Syria, we deterred Iranâs Shiite militias in Iraq, and most importantly and above everything else, we devastated Iranâs atomic weapons and ballistic missile programs,â he said.
âIsrael rebounded from its darkest day to deliver one of the most stunning military comebacks in history.â Smoke rises from an Israeli strike in the central Gaza Strip on Wednesday.
Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters The growing tally of days in Israelâs war in Gaza reflects another aspect of the same story.
For years, Netanyahuâs approach to warfare was characterized by brief and contained conflicts, especially in Gaza.
Operation Pillar of Defense, in 2012, for example, lasted just eight days.
The current Gaza war will mark two years next month, the longest in Israelâs history.
When he returned to power in 2009, Netanyahu declared that one of his goals would be eliminating Hamas.
In practice, despite his rhetoric, Israelâs longest serving prime ministerâs security policy was widely seen as cautious and relatively restrained, even derided as cowardly by political rivals, who also mocked his inability to make decisive moves.
His years of big talk turned into small decisions.
Then came October 7.
Two days after the Hamas-led attack left more than 1,200 Israelis dead, Netanyahu promised Israelis âwe are going to change the Middle East.â This time, he meant it.
Analysts who once expected caution are grappling with a new reality.
Netanyahu once shunned long wars and ground operations, aware of the cost and political capital that resulted in indecisive conclusions or stalemates.
Now he pursues them â often against the advice of his own military.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a statement during a US Independence Day reception on August 13.
Ronen Zvulun/AFP/Getty Images The Israel Defense Forcesâ chief of staff, Maj Gen Eyal Zamir, adamantly opposed the latest decision to take over Gaza City, and questioned the high-risk operation targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar.
But Netanyahu ignored his warnings.
âFrom the start of the war through the most recent decisions, including Iran and Qatar, at every one of these stages there were always people in the room who opposed, hesitated or raised reservations of one kind of another,â Netanyahu said at a press conference earlier this month.
âAnd that is perfectly fine, that is their role, they must state their opinion, but in the end, the one who decides is the cabinet.â This transformation raises a fundamental question, all the more important as the White House meeting nears: Has Netanyahu truly changed?
Related article Demonstrators take part in a protest to demand the immediate release of all hostages held in Gaza since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, near the U.S.
Consulate in Tel Aviv, Israel, July 7, 2025.
Ammar Awad/Reuters Trump upbeat about ending Gaza war as 21-point peace plan takes shape After October 7, Netanyahu is a âtotally different person, who has undergone an internal evolution, replacing his risk averse tendencies with a much more proactive and adventurous security approach,â said Mazal Mualem, author of âThe Netanyahu Codeâ biography.
The security collapse on October 7 served as a âwake up call,â Mualem said.
âHe wonât admit it but (he) was caught on total strategic blindness, and the lesson he drew was that he must free himself from the security establishment, which always frightened him with warnings about casualties in ground incursions,â she added.
âThis dovetailed with the Israeli public zeitgeist, which for years resisted paying the heavy prices of war.
October 7th changed him and changed thatâ.
As Israelâs longest-serving leader, Netanyahu has always been known to be driven â at least in part â by fear: of his government collapsing, of elections, of the polls swinging against him.
And now fear of his ongoing corruption trial.
That apprehension kept him from making big, sweeping changes.
Instead, he allowed Israelâs economy to hum along and took credit for the growing list of countries wanting part of Israelâs tech and arms industries.
Rockets are fired from Gaza City towards Israel on October 7, 2023.
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images Netanyahu canât be Israelâs âChurchillâ Anshel Pfeffer, The Economistâs Israel correspondent and author of âBibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu,â says the motivating factor hasnât changed at all, even if its effect has.
âNetanyahu has always been, and still is, extremely risk averse.
He fears change and clings to status quo,â he said.
âHe typically avoids both wars and diplomatic breakthroughs.
Even the Abraham Accords were forced upon him by the Trump administration.
And the Gaza war was forced by Hamas.
Once war became the status quo, Netanyahu adapted.
Heâs still addicted to the status quo â only now, the status quo is war.â Pfeffer says Netanyahu is still governed by fear, âonly now he fears his coalition partners more than anything else.â Related article Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacts at a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (not pictured) in Jerusalem in September.
Nathan Howard/Pool/Reuters From diplomacy to soccer, Israel is becoming a pariah on the global stage His far-right allies, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, oppose any negotiation with Hamas and are pushing for permanent occupation of Gaza, and their threats to topple the government if the war ends prematurely have shackled Netanyahuâs strategic decision-making.
Trumpâs proposal is said to acknowledge aspirations for Palestinian statehood, something firmly opposed by both men.
Still, acknowledging the shift in optics, Pfeffer says Netanyahu is ânow at a stage where heâs afraid of historyâs judgment, and that he wonât be remembered as Churchill and Israelâs defender.
He is desperate for a grand achievement that will rewrite history.
He is convinced something will eventually erase October 7th from Israelisâ memory and reveal him as their savior.â âBut that moment isnât coming.â Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at UN headquarters in New York City, on Friday.
Jeenah Moon/Reuters Pfeffer likens Netanyahu to âa desperate gambler, putting his chips in a different place each time in the hope of cementing his place in historyâ.
Netanyahu is a complex creature, he concludes, âso perhaps all the theories hold some truth.
He remains risk averse, afraid of ceasefires no less than of wars, a hostage of his coalition, and an extremely cautious man who has turned into a desperate gamblerâ.
Whether driven by genuine strategic evolution or survival instincts, Netanyahuâs transformation from cautious manager to regional gambler remains incomplete.
The military operations across multiple fronts may have restored some of Israelâs deterrence, but they have not yet delivered the decisive victory that he hopes could rehabilitate his legacy or secure his political future.
Israeli public support for the war, which was overwhelming at the beginning, has significantly eroded.
So has Israelâs international legitimacy, declining amid waves of sanction threats and international recognition for Palestinian statehood.
Supporters and family members of hostages who were kidnapped on October 7, 2023, demonstrate to demand the immediate release of all hostages and the end of war in Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday.
Nir Elias/Reuters The future of Netanyahuâs new daring playbook remains unclear ahead of his meeting with Trump at the White House.
So far, the Trump administration has done little to rein in Israelâs military endeavors and has backed Netanyahuâs continuation of the Gaza war.
But the support has come with sharp â and sometimes surprising â limitations.
In June, Trump backed Israelâs strikes on Iran during a 12-day assault, then forced Israel to turn back fighter jets already on their way to attack after he announced an end to hostilities.
The presidentâs mercurial nature means he can oppose Israelâs next move right after he backed the last one.
Trumpâs recent upbeat remarks about an imminent deal to end the fighting may signal that he could soon force Netanyahu into accepting a new status quo â one that may halt the prime ministerâs bid to build a legacy through military aggression and instead compel him to confront his political reckoning.
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