Rusia meningkatkan perang udaranya di Ukraina. Sebuah pabrik rahasia meningkatkan produksi drone untuk memicu serangan | berita

Berita  —  On a Kyiv rooftop in late November, a small group of volunteers in mismatched fatigues keep anxious watch.

By day, all are judges in Ukraine’s highest courts, but once a fortnight they come together as a makeshift air defense unit, armed only with a pair of Soviet-era machine guns to shoot down swarms of drones.

It’s “the cheapest way,” said Yuriy Chumak, one of the volunteers and a serving Supreme Court justice, highlighting Ukraine’s reluctance to use expensive, Western-supplied missiles against comparatively low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Chumak and his comrades shrug off the risk, keeping their spirits up with tea and jokes to while away a 24-hour shift.

But it’s clear their work has grown exponentially more dangerous in recent months as Russia has ramped up its drone offensive, terrorizing Ukrainian cities on an almost daily basis.

Over the last six months, Russia’s drone attacks have increased from around 400 in May to more than 2,400 in November, according to a Berita tally of data from Ukraine’s armed forces.

There have been at least 1,700 drone strikes so far in December.

Firefighters respond to a Russian drone strike on an apartment building in Ternopil, Ukraine, on December 2.

State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Reuters As the onslaught escalates, Berita has discovered new details about the expansion of a secretive factory fueling Moscow’s drone war.

The plant at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, in Russia’s southern Tatarstan region, has significantly scaled up its production of Iranian-designed attack and surveillance drones, using a range of Chinese components, and recruiting a very young, low-skilled workforce of Russian teenagers and African women, according to Berita’s analysis of associated social media accounts and assessments by Ukrainian defense intelligence sources.

The sources, who spoke to Berita anonymously out of fear for their safety, said that the factory is now also producing thousands of “decoy” drones, designed to exhaust Ukrainian defenses.

Satellite imagery analyzed by Berita and experts shows that two additional buildings have been constructed at the site, and security increased.

Neither the Russian Ministry of Defense nor Alabuga have not responded to Berita’s requests for comment about drone production at the factory.

The findings offer a rare window into Russia’s booming defense industry, which is, according to a recent estimate by Germany’s defense minister, outproducing the European Union in terms of weapons and ammunition by a factor of four.

That has put Ukraine in a precarious position, at a moment when it is in more urgent need than ever before.

Just weeks away from US President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House on a promise to end the war, future American military assistance for Kyiv is in doubt.

After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it began importing Iranian Shahed drones.

But by early 2023, Moscow and Tehran had inked a $1.75 billion deal for Russia to make the drones domestically, according to leaked documents provided to Berita by Ukrainian cyber intelligence group InformNapalm.

The Alabuga Special Economic Zone, which lies around 600 miles east of Moscow, was originally set up in 2006 to attract Western companies with generous tax breaks.

But, after the war started, several of its major tenants left.

Part of the site has significantly expanded since it switched to military production, satellite imagery shows.

Alabuga is now the main plant for producing the Shahed-136 drone – or Geran-2, as Russia refers to it – with an agreement to produce 6,000 units by September 2025, according to the leaked documents.

Alabuga appears to have already fulfilled that contract.

The factory produced 2,738 Shahed drones in 2023, and more than doubled that number in the first nine months of 2024, producing 5,760 between January and September, according to the Ukrainian defense intelligence sources.

The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, which has been tracking Alabuga since 2022, believes that the 6,000 drones were manufactured about a year ahead of schedule.

“They’re moving fast and you’re seeing it across the entire military production industries of Russia,” David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector who founded the institute, told Berita.

“They themselves are not making the high-tech stuff, they import what they need to do that, but they’re able to boost production of things that are easier to make, and drones fundamentally are not that hard.” In addition to the Shaheds, it appears that Alabuga has been manufacturing low-tech, “decoy” drones since the summer, the sources in Ukraine’s defense intelligence told Berita.

Known as the “Gerbera,” the decoy drones are made of plywood and foam and mimic the Shahed’s distinctive triangular shape.

“The Russian military discovered relatively quickly that Ukrainian air defenses can be quite capable of shooting down the majority of Shaheds,” said Samuel Bendett, an adviser at CNA, a nonprofit research organization based in Virginia, adding that, “Russia needed a weapon, a system that could basically present multitudes of false targets for the Ukrainian defenders.” Russia is aiming to produce around 10,000 Gerbera drones by the end of 2024, almost double the number of Shaheds, according to the Ukrainian defense intelligence sources.

Cost is likely a major factor driving this strategy, given that one Gerbera is estimated to be 10 times less to produce than a Shahed, the sources said.

Yury Chumak, a Ukrainian air defense volunteer, told Berita he has witnessed Russia’s “rapidly changing tactics.” Some Russian drones are now so basic they aren't even armed with explosives, he said.

Berita Chumak said it’s impossible to tell the difference between true Shaheds and the decoys on the radar, but that many of the incoming UAVs appear to be unarmed.

“If we see the drone on a map or by our eyes, we try to shoot it down… cheap or expensive,” he told Berita.

He estimates if Russia fires 150 drones in a night, only 20 to 30 will be Shaheds.

There’s evidence Russia has started trialing thermobaric warheads, which produce more powerful and destructive blast waves, on the UAVs.

At the end of October, the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute for Forensic Expertise revealed they had detected traces of thermobaric munitions, also known as vacuum bombs, on fragments of Shahed drones.

“If it hits in a confined space, that is indoors, it has a much higher destructive force there than a fragmentation munition,” chief forensic expert at the Kyiv institute, Oleksiy Stepaniuk said.

With the help of volunteers like Chumak, Ukraine is still putting up a solid defense.

Only 5% of Shahed or similar drones hit their targets between August and October, according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

But as attacks increase in scale, the challenge is growing.

A firefighter assesses the damage to a medical centre in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 7, after a Russian drone strike.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters Resident Oksana Tereshchenko, 59, examines her bedroom after a drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, on October 30.

Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images A Ukrainian defense source familiar with the situation told Berita that there have recently been cases when “it was necessary to shoot down drones with advanced anti-aircraft missile systems,” reflecting the quick decisions the military must make on how to use precious resources.

Drone factory expands, increases security Satellite images taken of Alabuga over the past nine months offer stark proof of the program’s expansion.

In June 2023, the US National Security Council released a satellite image of the complex and identified two buildings as being involved in drone manufacturing.

Internal documents obtained by the Institute for Science and International Security confirmed the location and revealed that Alabuga was the main party responsible for the production and supply of Shahed drones to the Russian military.

Between March and September, two new buildings appeared next door to those originally identified by the US, increasing the footprint of the manufacturing site by 55%, according to Berita analysis of satellite imagery.

While it’s unclear what exactly the new buildings are for, they are within the security cordon around the two original structures, suggesting they are part of the same operation, Albright told Berita.

Between June and September, construction began on what appear to be elevated walkways connecting the new and original buildings, which were completed by November, according to satellite imagery and Albright’s research.

Construction of another walkway is in progress and looks set to link the original buildings with nearby worker dormitories, one of which was struck in a long-range Ukrainian drone attack in April.

Over a dozen people were injured in the strike, Russian state media reported.

Albright and his team also identified mesh on top of all four buildings, which they assess to be “anti-drone” cages designed to shield the facility, indicating a growing concern over safety at the site.

“Alabuga inside has never had security,” he said.

“And what we saw was the creation of an internal security perimeter… because now it’s a military operation.” Ukraine’s defense intelligence said on Monday that an Alabuga warehouse storing Shahed drone components worth $16 million was destroyed in a “mysterious fire,” noting that it was a blow to Russia’s “military industrial complex” and underscoring the active nature of the fight.

As Alabuga focuses on ramping up production, another partner appears to be stepping in to help ease sanctions-related supply chain issues: China.

Between September 2023 and June 2024, 34 Chinese companies “cooperated” with Alabuga, signing contracts totaling around 700 million yuan, or over 8 billion rubles ($96 million), sources in Ukrainian defense intelligence told Berita.

The sources said those companies supplied parts and materials, production equipment for UAV manufacturing, and one even provided jamming equipment to protect Alabuga against drone attacks.

The Gerbera drone is based on a Chinese prototype from a company called Skywalker Technology, which is also supplying the “kits” to build them, according to the sources.

An initial contract for 2,000 kits was signed in May, with Skywalker offering to supply another 8,000 in July, they said.

A video shared on Telegram by "Stalin's Falcons," which appears to be a new Russian army drone unit, shows what it describes as the "little sister" of the Geran: "the Gerbera UAV." Telegram / Stalins_Sokol Berita has reached out to Skywalker Technology for comment but has not received a response.

That Chinese electronics have been found in Russian drones is not a secret, but Beijing maintains it has never provided lethal weapons to any party in the war in Ukraine.

In response to Berita’s request for comment on the drones, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement that China maintains an “objective and impartial stance on the Ukraine issue,” adding that the country “strictly controls the export of dual-use goods for military and civilian uses.” US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told Berita that Alabuga’s drones were clearly having an impact on the battlefield in Ukraine, and China’s involvement was a big concern.

“We’ve made clear to the Chinese that although they are not providing lethal aid, they are selling components – including drone components,” he said.

The US has already sanctioned two Chinese companies believed to be directly involved in developing and producing long-range attack drones for Russia; dozens more China-based firms have been sanctioned for supplying Russia with dual-use goods and components that can be used to make weapons, including drones.

And China’s role at Alabuga looks set to grow even further.

Just a few miles from the site a new transport hub is under construction.

“The Deng Xiaoping Logistics Сomplex,” named after China’s late leader, is a direct rail link between Russia and China intended to carry up to 100,000 containers a year, according to a promotional video.

Russian President Vladimir Putin raised it in a meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the October BRICS summit.

Just over a week later, Alabuga reported the first test-train was ceremonially dispatched to China, carrying 76 containers of Russian agricultural products.

“Given the pressure from sanctions and the constantly changing environment,” said one Alabuga official quoted in the official account, “we recognize the need to establish a logistical buffer for industry.”